What if Ukraine Loses? What if Ukraine Wins?

The war in Ukraine is now reaching a turning point that  could see the war-torn country either win or lose the conflict.  The West is subsequently faced with the question of whether it will truly back Kyiv in its aim to achieve victory. Such a  decision will have consequences for the entire world order.

In Europe and the US, political discussions are ongoing  regarding possible amounts of aid to Ukraine. In my opinion,  these discussions can be helped by a clear vision of the  world in line with two alternative scenarios: Ukrainian defeat  and Ukrainian victory. What benefits and losses will western  countries have to face? It is worth analyzing such possible  outcomes. 

What if Ukraine will lose? 

Imagine the world after Ukraine’s defeat. First, this would be a clear signal to all aggressive regimes  around the globe: you can do whatever you want. The rule based and agreement-based world order is over. The world  

would go back to how it was 100 years ago, with all the  efforts and victims related to the Second World War wasted.  China will use force to expand its influence, which could  result in a new world war. But also smaller autocracies  across the world will attack their weaker neighbours like  Saddam Hussein attacked Kuwait. North Korean forces will  appear more in conflicts across the globe. Piracy, blocking  trade routes and cutting communications will be a normal  practice. Commodity prices will go up, insurance rates will be  sky high, and free trade will be forced to shrink. Second, it would be clear that only nuclear weapons can  stop an aggressor. All long-term efforts to stop proliferation  will be wasted. Nuclear blackmail will be the norm. The planet will become a much more insecure place, and the  probability of nuclear accidents will only grow. Third, the fall of Ukraine will create a new wave of refugees  much bigger than before. This will undermine the European  economy and social cohesion. 

Fourth, Russia will not stop. A successful offensive in  Ukraine will strengthen it with Ukrainian resources, including  local people drafted into the Russian army. Russia will go  forward, to the Baltics (as described by the General Richard  Shirreff) and Poland, to the Caucasus and Central Asia,  restoring its empire as Putin promised. Russia will more  actively penetrate elections in the free world; expand its  media influence, cyber-attacks and secret operations; and  weaponize fuel and grain. New hot spots will appear in  Africa, the Middle East and Asia, perhaps one day even in  the western hemisphere. Those westerners who are afraid of escalation will see their biggest fears become reality. Fifth, very probably the Russian economy will not survive a  further escalation in its aggressive wars. The collapse of the  Russian economy will produce even more issues like the  proliferation of nuclear weapons; humanitarian catastrophes  such as refugee crises; the growth of radical Islam; and the  further strengthening of China with Russian resources. Sixth, the efficiency of dictatorship and weakness of  democracy will be proven for all to see. Strong hands and  Russia sympathizers will come to power in many countries,  including Europe. European unity will be over as well as  European dreams for sustainable peace. EU-US relations  will also deteriorate greatly.

An interim remark

Some people in the West believe that it is possible to end the  war without a Ukrainian defeat or victory – in sports  language, a draw. However, war is not a sport. The cessation  of hostilities without defeat or victory is only a respite for  Russia, which will not give up its goals. I have to note that Ukraine’s defeat does not necessarily  mean that Russian forces would be able to break through  the Ukrainian defence. This could be a consequence of a long war of attrition, making Ukraine scorched earth unfit for  life and leading to the collapse of the country’s energy  system and economy. It could also be a consequence of an  imposed ceasefire, which will be used by Russia and its  allies to accumulate enough missiles to beat Ukraine’s air  defence and annihilate its government. All the indecisions  that we have observed throughout the last few years could  finally end in Ukraine’s defeat. Time matters. Ukrainian  resilience is great but not unlimited.

What if Ukraine will win?

Imagine the world after Russia’s defeat. 

First, this would offer a clear signal that the world order  based on rules and agreements is sustainable. China and  other aggressive regimes will reduce their appetite for  provocation. The security of global routes and  

communications will be ensured. World energy and food  security will be strengthened. World leaders, now focused on  security, will be able to pay more attention to other key  problems of humankind.

Second, a wider war in Europe will be prevented without any  drop of American or European blood. European unity will be  saved. Investments to the borderland countries will be saved  and secured for the future. 

Third, the whole authoritarian axis will be weakened.  Tensions throughout the world will decrease primarily in key  areas of Russian activity: the Middle East and Africa. All the  dictators, terrorist regimes and organizations, private military  companies, hacker groups and other destructive forces will  lose support.

Fourth, Moscow’s defeat will bring positive effects to the  peoples of the Russian Federation, as it has always been  the case in the Russian/Soviet empire’s history. Defeat  becomes the basis for reforms. As the European Parliament  Resolution 2024/2579 from February 29th 2024 declares,  “Ukraine’s decisive victory may lead to genuine changes in  the system in the Russian Federation, in particular  deimperialisation, decolonisation and refederalisation, all of  which are necessary conditions for the establishment of  democracy in Russia.” The Russian Federation will return to  the world arena as a responsible partner. 

Fifth, there will be one less pretender when it comes to the  role of global superpower, which will dramatically decrease  global risks. Two superpowers are more likely to come to an  agreement than three, as the history of the end of the Cold  War proves. The absence of a resurgent Russia would be  profitable for both the US and China. Thus, this becomes a  good point for a possible agreement or understanding  between two superpowers.

Sixth, global trade will be more profitable for the West.  Nobody will weaponize fuel or other goods. Western  companies will take over the Russian part of some key  markets like military equipment because a Russian defeat  will undermine its role as a producer of modern weaponry.  Simply put, a Russian defeat would be profitable. Seventh, innovations brought by this war could be used to  rethink modern warfare, as well as rearm and retrain NATO  forces to make them ready for the next generation of  challenges. For the first time in modern history, generals can  prepare for the next war, not the last one, without losing the  lives of their soldiers. Also the security balance between  Europe and the US will improve significantly. 

Conclusion

Today, western elites are afraid of escalation and therefore  they wait and make half-hearted decisions. The reality is that  escalation is happening gradually anyway as a consequence  of these (in)decisions. 

The world will never be like it was before Russia’s full-scale  unprovoked war against Ukraine. It is not possible to go back  to business as usual. Now we are coming to a turning point:  Ukraine’s defeat or Russia’s defeat. A prolonged war of  attrition will lead to Ukraine’s defeat as well as increases in  western expenses. The ceasefire which is necessary for  Moscow to rearm with the support of its allies will also lead  to Ukraine’s defeat. There is no way to avoid the choice.  There is no way to postpone the choice to some point in the  future. Time matters.

Support for Ukraine is not an expense but an investment: in  global peace, in rearmament and innovations, and in free  trade. Support for Ukraine not for “as long as it takes” but  aimed at Ukraine’s victory and Russia’s defeat is not only  value-based, it is a rational choice based on many  arguments. 

Avoiding the future will only take us back to the past: to the  hell of global disorder.